Oil is still scarce and the White House's big Venezuela announcement changes almost nothing this year — bad news for anyone hoping for cheaper fuel.

• Only about half the normal amount of oil is getting out of the Middle East, so world stockpiles keep draining and the market keeps tightening.
• The US Navy has genuinely pushed volumes higher and Iran looks to be losing its grip on the strait, but official claims of 9–10 million barrels a day are exaggerated.
• Iran will likely have to scare shipping again to regain leverage, since its ability to wait the US out is eroding.
• Trump's plan to hand the Pentagon a stake in Venezuela's oil fields is drawing anger across Venezuelan politics and looks like it violates their constitution.
• Big oil companies already passed on these fields, and the heavy Venezuelan crude cannot be pumped into the US strategic reserve as the caverns are built today.

Outlook: Oil stays tight into next year, with the next real relief coming only if China restarts large exports of diesel and other fuels.