A new Keelung poll shows the sitting mayor's lead shrinking to almost nothing among voters who say they will definitely turn out — bad news for Hsieh Kuo-liang, good news for challenger Tung Tzu-wei.

• Hsieh leads Tung by about five points overall, but among people certain to vote the two are dead even.
• Tung's backers are more motivated: more of them say they will definitely show up on election day.
• Age splits the city — under-40s favour Tung by a wide margin, while every group over 40 leans Hsieh, especially retirees.
• Roughly 28,000 Keelung voters say they will vote but have not picked a side, and they will decide the race.
• Elsewhere before the year-end local elections, the KMT–TPP alliance collapsed in Zhubei, drawing angry public attacks from influencer "Kuan Chang" Chen Chih-han.

Outlook: With under three months left, both camps will spend the final stretch chasing undecided voters, and turnout will likely matter more than the headline numbers.