SpaceX shares have collapsed since going public, and the first earnings report is shaping up to be an ugly test of whether investors still buy the hype — bad news for anyone who chased the IPO.

• SpaceX stock is down about 50% from its peak, and Elon Musk is calling it a buying opportunity.
• Over $100 billion in insider shares unlock this week, and early sellers appear ready to cash out.
• The company is burning far more cash than it makes — about $11 billion in cash burn against $7 billion in revenue.
• Much of the pitch rests on far-off promises like data centers in space, moon bases, and thousands more Starlink satellites.
• Talk of a SpaceX-Tesla merger is heating up, seen partly as a way to bail out a struggling Tesla.

Outlook: The first earnings call and insider unlock could push the stock lower if sellers rush the exits and the futuristic promises don't reassure investors.