Stocks jumped to a record on hope that a US-Iran deal will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring oil prices down, but the deal keeps getting promised and never quite arrives.

• The S&P 500 hit a record and the Dow surged after officials said a deal with Iran is "near" to reopen the key oil shipping route.
• Trouble is, Iran denies real talks are happening and its forces just hit two cargo ships in the Gulf, so nothing is settled.
• If the route reopens, oil could fall toward $55–60 a barrel, which would help cool inflation — but supply shocks feed into prices with a lag, so relief may be slow.
• The US and Japan are teaming up to prop up the yen; if it fails and Japan starts dumping US debt, US borrowing costs jump and the war gets harder to fund.
• With markets at highs, insiders are cashing out — Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4 billion in Amazon shares.

Outlook: Markets are betting on a quick Iran deal, but with both sides contradicting each other and ships still under attack, the optimism could unwind fast if no deal lands in the next few days.