Trump says he will likely bomb an Iranian underground nuclear site, but the case for the strike rests on shaky Israeli intelligence — bad news for anyone hoping to avoid a deeper US war in the Middle East.

• Israel leaked intel to the Wall Street Journal claiming Iran hid thousands of centrifuges inside Pickaxe Mountain, a deep site near Natanz.
• Trump admits the claim isn't confirmed and that he relies on news reports, yet says he'll hit the area soon anyway.
• Experts say the mountain is buried so deep that even a bunker buster or a small nuke couldn't destroy it — only a ground raid could, which is what Israel wants.
• The bigger fear: Israel's cabinet distancing itself from the US campaign could be cover to justify using its own nuclear weapon on the site and blame it on no one.
• The framing echoes the false "weapons of mass destruction" claims that pulled the US into the Iraq war.

Outlook: A US strike on Pickaxe Mountain looks likely soon, raising the risk of a wider and harder-to-exit conflict with Iran.