A grim outlook for the world economy and Trump's presidency, as Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to choke off global oil and drag the US into a Vietnam-style quagmire.

• Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz — the passage for 20% of the world's oil — and is stronger than before the war started in late February.
• Oil is running short: US and allied emergency reserves are nearly drained, and the Houthis just shut down the Red Sea route that was bypassing Hormuz.
• Robert Pape puts the odds of US ground troops landing in Iran at 70%, possibly within days, as Trump gambles on a symbolic win before the crisis fully hits.
• Trump signed a deal handing Iran control of Hormuz, then broke it within two days rather than publicly accept the loss — restarting the war.
• The real danger is a mass-casualty or suicide attack on US troops or civilians, which ground occupation historically triggers.

Outlook: A world oil shock and possible recession are close, and with midterm elections three months away, Trump is likely to escalate militarily rather than back down.