AOC has jumped into the lead for the 2028 Democratic nomination while Gavin Newsom is fading — bad news for the party's establishment, and a sign the socialist wing is taking over.

• Newsom's support is collapsing in early states, with his favorability and poll numbers dropping sharply over the past nine months.
• Prediction markets now put AOC ahead, with her odds rising fast while Newsom's fall — she's far more liked than he is.
• Newsom hurt himself by trying to sound like a socialist when he isn't, leaving voters unsure what he stands for.
• The young, energized socialist wing — AOC, Mamdani, and allies — is winning over youth with simple messages like "tax the rich," while establishment liberals like Van Jones and Bill Maher openly push back.
• The Republican side is expected to get ugly too as Trump exits, with Vance, Rubio, DeSantis, and others jockeying, and affordability shaping up as the key issue for both parties.

Outlook: Expect nasty primaries on both sides, with AOC positioned as the Democratic front-runner and Newsom's shot at the nomination all but over.