Washington and Israel are exploring ways to strip Hezbollah of its weapons, and the most likely outcome is a long internal war in Lebanon — bad for Lebanese civilians and for oil markets already under strain.

• The plan is to train elite Lebanese army units and hand them Israel's occupied zone in the south.
• It is unlikely to work because Hezbollah is woven into the Lebanese army itself and gets tipped off.
• Israel also wants Syria to block Iranian weapons smuggling, after having bombed away Syria's ability to do anything.
• Trump hosted Lebanon's president and reopened direct US flights to Beirut, a friendly gesture with unclear effect on Lebanon's rival factions.
• The Houthis have banned Saudi-linked ships from the Red Sea, and tankers are already turning around, while the US keeps draining its emergency oil reserve.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on Hezbollah with no real disarmament, and tighter oil shipping routes that keep gas prices elevated.