Trump is now openly threatening to strike Iran's untouched Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, a sign the situation is getting worse — bad for the economy, oil prices, and stocks over the next year.

• After a year of silence, Trump says the US will hit Pickaxe Mountain heavily and soon, which suggests Iran's centrifuges and enriched uranium have moved there.
• There is no good option: the site sits far deeper under granite than the bunkers already bombed, so US bombs likely can't reach it, and doing nothing lets Iran finish a bomb.
• Iran has enough enriched uranium for 10 or 11 bombs and US officials say it is only weeks from weapons-grade, with nobody sure where the material is.
• Oil jumped to $94 a barrel as the Houthis squeeze the Red Sea and ships reroute, while government bond yields climbed to 4.65%.
• Stocks are sitting near record highs and ignoring all of it, which is the real danger.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on oil and shipping, with a market reaction likely once the economic damage shows up — hold more cash and less debt.