An economist argues America's real problem is too much private debt, not government debt — bad news for banks and homeowners sitting on inflated house prices, good news for young people priced out.

• The fix on the table: the government creates money and hands every adult $100,000, with anyone in debt forced to pay it down first — a "modern debt jubilee."
• Household debt runs near 100% of the economy when it should be closer to 30%, and house prices have gone from three times income to ten times.
• The cause was deregulating banks starting in the 1970s, which sent money into speculation and housing bubbles instead of real business.
• Alan Greenspan's legacy gets a harsh grade: bailing out Wall Street after 1987 taught the financial sector it would always be rescued.
• Rates should come down now, because closing the Strait of Hormuz will push oil costs up while weak unions leave workers unable to win raises — a demand collapse, not a wage spiral.

Outlook: Expect a burst of price increases from oil, then a slump as people cut spending and struggle to pay their debts.