Republicans are in worse shape for the midterms than they expected, with Fox News now projecting Democrats to take the House and the Senate as a coin flip.

• Fox News rates Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine as toss-ups, and those four decide the Senate.
• An unpopular war is dragging Republicans down in states they thought were safe, like Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is leading.
• Iowa has been hit hardest by Trump's tariffs and the damage to cattle and soybean farmers, and patience there has worn out.
• Democrats lead the generic ballot by 4 points, a five-point swing from 2024, but they are badly outspent and polarization caps how big a wave can get.
• Redistricting wins could soften Republican House losses, so either way the next Congress looks close and deadlocked.

Outlook: If the war drags into the fall, more Republican seats slip, but a thin Democratic majority is the likeliest result.