SpaceX shares are sliding hard after a hyped debut, a bad sign for retail investors and retirement accounts that got fast-tracked into the stock.

• The stock is down 45% from its post-IPO high, wiping out about $1 trillion in market value.
• SpaceX, Starlink and xAI together lost money last year despite big revenue, so the original valuation looked inflated.
• Nasdaq rushed the company into its main index after just 15 trading days, pulling ordinary savers in through index funds early.
• A possible multi-billion-dollar Pentagon deal to supply AI computing power gave the stock a brief bounce.
• Musk's closeness to the Trump administration is drawing conflict-of-interest complaints, since the government keeps handing him contracts.

Outlook: Expect more big swings, with government contracts the main thing propping the stock up in the near term.