The US is pushing Cuba toward collapse with an oil embargo and now weighing a military assault — bad for ordinary Cubans, who are bearing the suffering.

• Cuba just hit its third nationwide blackout since the US oil embargo began, cutting power to hospitals, water, and phones.
• Fuel has been running out since January, when Trump threatened tariffs on any country that sells oil to the island.
• Tens of thousands of surgeries have been canceled and daily life has ground down, hitting regular people hardest.
• The Pentagon has studied an air assault by the 101st Airborne, but US forces are stretched thin elsewhere, and Rubio publicly favors pressuring Cuba toward a new pro-reform government.
• The drive is tied to hardline Cuban-American politics, though that lobby is seen as too weak to force a full war on its own.

Outlook: A ground invasion looks unlikely soon given military strain, but sanctions and pressure will keep tightening the screws on Cuba.