Oil markets on the brink as blockades and war strip away the world's spare supply

Jul 20, 2026

Global oil supply is being squeezed from every direction at once, and this is bad news for anyone who buys gas, heats a home, or depends on stable markets.

  • The Houthis say they will blockade Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil exports, cutting off one of the last routes still flowing after the Strait of Hormuz shut down.
  • China is starting to buy oil again in big volumes, and because it's such a huge buyer, that alone could push prices sharply higher.
  • Ukraine has knocked out more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity, removing another cushion from the global market.
  • US oil inventories are down to about 43 days of supply — the lowest in 45 years — leaving almost no buffer if anything else goes wrong.
  • Gas is back to $4 a gallon nationally, and John Mearsheimer warns the setup points to a much bigger economic shock ahead.

Outlook: With every backup supply nearly exhausted, a single extra shock — a hurricane, a ground invasion, another blockade — could send oil toward $150 and trigger real shortages.

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