Trump's plan to cap credit card interest at 10% sounds like a win for people drowning in debt, but it would likely cut off the very borrowers it aims to help.

• Banks say lending at 10% loses money once you count their borrowing costs, running the card division, and unpaid balances — so they'd stop lending to risky customers.
• The people most likely to get cut off are those with low credit scores, who could be pushed toward payday lenders and pawn shops instead.
• Rewards like cash back and travel points would likely be gutted, and small business owners who lean on business credit cards could face layoffs or closures.
• The cap has stalled — it needs an act of Congress, faces resistance from both parties, and would be tied up in court over state lending laws.
• Household debt has hit a record $18.8 trillion, and banks are already tightening who they lend to even without the cap.

Outlook: The cap looks unlikely to pass soon, and the Fed's rate is expected to drift lower over the next year or so, though not in a straight line.