Bitcoin just did something it never has in 16 years, and it's a warning sign for buyers even though the longer-term outlook stays bullish.

• Bitcoin bounced to new recent highs near $64K-$65K, and crypto Twitter is calling the start of a new bull market.
• But on the monthly chart, Bitcoin broke below its long-running bull market support line — the trend line that held in 2019, 2020, and 2022 — for the first time ever.
• This doesn't mean crash to zero, but it's a reason to stay cautious rather than chase the rally.
• The bear market is likely near its end, probably around September or October this year.
• Whether you buy at $65K or wait for $75K-$78K barely matters if the real target is a six-figure Bitcoin.

Outlook: Another pump toward $72K is possible but could roll over again; a clean break above $72K-$78K would confirm the bear phase is done.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Cautiously bullish long-term, but short-term careful after the monthly support break
• **Buy / accumulate:** Entries around $65K, or $75K-$78K — level matters little given the six-figure target
• **Support:** The monthly bull market support line (held 2019/2020/2022) — now broken to the downside
• **Resistance:** $64K-$65,400 recent high
• **Targets:** Six-digit Bitcoin (over $100K)
• **Invalidation:** A break above $72K (or $75K-$78K) invalidates the bearish case