Bad news for borrowers and investors: too many governments and tech giants want money at once, and a new Middle East flare-up is pushing up oil and the cost of everything.

• SpaceX, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, and the US government are all trying to sell bonds at the same time, and there isn't enough money to go around without paying higher rates.
• When it costs more to borrow, that eventually drags on stocks too.
• Oil jumped after Trump reinstated a blockade on Iran, and if the Strait of Hormuz keeps opening and closing, shippers and insurers get spooked and oil could head back toward $100.
• Gulf states now need their cash at home for war rebuilding and pipelines, so less of their money flows into US tech.
• Trump's demand that protected Gulf countries pay a 20% "toll" is unlikely to go over well, and could push oil and business costs higher still.

Outlook: Expect borrowing costs and oil to stay high or rise if the Iran conflict escalates, squeezing both companies and consumers.