Neutral-to-mixed for tech investors: IBM's weak numbers point to money flowing out of legacy software and into AI hardware, while a possible Iran raid looms as a risk.

• IBM warned its earnings will be bad, with revenue growth collapsing from 9% to about 1%, because clients stopped buying its mainframes and software.
• Big companies like Goldman Sachs are making so much money in the AI boom that they're spending on their own Nvidia chips and building simple software in-house instead of paying IBM.
• That helps hardware makers — Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Dell all rose — while software names like ServiceNow and Salesforce got hit.
• Cyber security stocks (Palo Alto, CrowdStrike) look like winners but are pricey and face heavy competition.
• A bigger risk is brewing: Trump says the US may raid Iran's deep "Pickaxe Mountain" nuclear site, which would need troops on the ground and spook markets.

Outlook: Hardware, especially Nvidia, likely has another leg up, but rate-sensitive stocks stay weak until the Iran conflict cools and the Fed turns dovish.