SpaceX's stock has fallen to a record low near its IPO price, which is bad news for retail investors who bought high and for the Musk-linked insiders still hyping it.

• SpaceX shares have dropped two days straight to around 135, close to the 135 IPO price, wiping out gains for people who chased it above 200.
• The stock trades at a huge price versus its actual revenue, so critics say buyers are taking on big risk for little upside even if the company doubles again.
• Insiders and allies keep pumping it — Joe Lonsdale says he won't sell, and even Katie Miller is quoting Wall Street price targets — which reads as a classic sign to get out.
• A privacy scandal is adding pressure, with developers claiming SpaceX's Grok tool uploaded their code without consent.
• The whole story ties into government contracts and light-touch regulation, as the FCC fast-tracks satellite and orbital data-center approvals that benefit Musk.

Outlook: With the stock near its IPO floor and insiders talking it up, more downside looks likely before it stabilizes.