AI could replace most jobs within a few years, and the people building it put alarmingly high odds on disaster.

• A former OpenAI forecaster who worked there in 2022 says AI may soon do most human jobs, and warns almost everyone should expect their work to be at risk.
• He puts a high chance — around 70% — that advanced AI goes badly wrong, up to human extinction, and says he told his wife not to have more kids.
• The danger is speed: CEOs like Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Elon Musk are racing to build the most powerful AI first, each afraid a rival could end up in total control.
• He walked away from $2 million by refusing to sign a clause that would have barred him from criticizing OpenAI.
• His earlier 2021 predictions proved accurate, and a new set of scenarios pushes the timeline for AI matching humans to around 2027–2030.

Outlook: The forecast is for AI to reach human-level ability within a few years, with the outcome hinging on whether safety catches up to the race.