Michigan's Democratic Senate primary just swung toward the anti-establishment candidate, bad news for the party's centrist wing and pro-Israel donors.

• Mallory McMorrow, the consultant-backed "normal soccer mom" candidate, quit the race with her support sitting in single digits.
• Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive running to her left, now holds a comfortable lead over establishment favorite Haley Stevens.
• El-Sayed's rise came after the race polarized around Israel and Gaza, where most Democratic voters now hold negative views.
• McMorrow torpedoed herself by attacking streamer Hasan Piker and by producing a secret Israel policy paper aimed at keeping AIPAC out — both looked cynical to voters.
• Big money is still flowing to Stevens, so where McMorrow's remaining voters go will decide the August 4th primary.

Outlook: El-Sayed is favored, but a flood of pro-Israel cash for Stevens keeps the race live until the vote.