Prediction markets are painted as more honest than opinion polls — good for anyone who wants a truer read on elections, bad for media outlets that spin their own polls.

• People lie to pollsters about who they support, but they bet honestly on who will actually win.
• Putting real money on an outcome forces an honest call, even from voters who dislike the likely winner.
• That is why prediction markets have called elections better than traditional polls.
• Politicians and TV networks dislike these markets because they can't be spun the way a poll on ABC can.

Outlook: Expect prediction markets to keep gaining trust as a check on media polling, and more pushback from those who prefer to control the narrative.