Meta's move to rent out spare AI computing power spooked hardware stocks, but it looks more like the start of cashing in than a warning sign.

• Meta said it may sell its extra AI compute, and stocks that rent out compute got hit hard — Nebius fell 17% and CoreWeave 14%.
• The fear is that if Meta or another big spender starts cutting AI budgets, the whole chip stack (Nvidia, AMD, memory makers) could tumble and drag the economy into a recession.
• But the big five — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle — are still guiding spending up, from $410 billion this year to $715 billion in 2026, with no sign of cuts, shrinking orders, or falling backlogs.
• Meta itself is a money machine, growing ad revenue fast and keeping fat profit margins, so selling spare compute is just a bonus, copying how SpaceX and early Amazon (AWS) turned unused capacity into cash.
• A real top signal would be companies guiding for lower spending — that isn't happening yet, though record use of leveraged ETFs means any downturn could get ugly fast.

Outlook: No hardware peak yet, but watch for the first big spender to guide capex lower — that would be the signal to worry.