The US and Iran traded fresh strikes over the weekend before agreeing to pause again, a tense but ultimately calming sign for markets and oil.

• Fighting flared over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran hitting a tanker and US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the US striking Iranian missile and radar sites.
• Trump threatened that Iran "will no longer exist" and hinted the job isn't finished, breaking the no-threats deal one day after signing it.
• Both sides paused right before markets opened Monday, repeating a pattern where the truce is timed to lift stocks.
• Trump is scared of a wider war wrecking the economy before the midterms, which pushes him back to the negotiating table each time.
• Ship traffic through the Strait is still far below normal, so the disruption to oil shipping is real even with the pause.

Outlook: Talks move to Qatar this week starting with the Strait of Hormuz, but with Iran not even confirming it will show, the deal stays shaky.