A long discussion on the Ukraine war argues Russia is winning slowly but Putin is failing to hit back hard — bad news for war-weary Russians and a sign the fighting drags on.

• Ukraine is hammering Crimea with drones and missiles, hitting oil refineries and fuel depots and ruining summer vacations for Russians who flock there.
• The attacks are meant to pressure Putin into ending the war on Ukraine's terms, but they won't take Crimea back.
• Russia keeps responding weakly even after deadly strikes on Russian soil, and ordinary Russians are tired and asking why Putin drags it out.
• Even if Russia takes the whole Donbas, the war won't end — Europe is funding Ukraine with billions in loans and new weapons to keep fighting.
• Zelensky stays in power because Europe finds him useful as a proxy, and is now threatening Belarus, risking a wider war.

Outlook: The fighting looks set to grind on by small cuts, with Belarus at risk of being pulled in and no decisive end in sight.