Bitcoin is falling and converging back toward the software stock index it tracked before the Trump crypto hype, which is bad news for crypto holders who bet on a lasting breakout.

• Bitcoin moves on momentum and FOMO, not fundamentals.
• It traded almost in lockstep with the software stock ETF (IGV) from COVID through 2024.
• Trump's crypto hype — Bitcoin in retirement accounts, a national Bitcoin reserve — pushed Bitcoin far above that trend.
• Now Bitcoin is falling back toward IGV, and over the last six months it's dropping even as software stocks rise.

Outlook: Without a fresh hype catalyst, Bitcoin likely keeps sliding back toward the software index.