A hypothetical Iran-US war ends with Iran the winner, getting sanctions relief and a stronger hand — bad for Israel, mixed for the US, good for Iran.

• Trump is lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and letting Iran sell it in dollars, framed as a "humanitarian" food-and-medicine deal to save face.
• The real driver is the economy: closing the Strait of Hormuz threatened to spike oil and risk a depression, forcing Trump to end the war on Iran's terms.
• The nuclear inspection question is being pushed to later talks, and Iran is expected to give ground there in exchange for bigger wins elsewhere.
• This is called a strategic disaster for Israel, which wanted to crush Iran but now faces a richer, rebuilt rival of 93 million people.
• Trump is pressuring Israel to pull out of southern Lebanon and stop bombing, while Israel turns its threats toward Turkey via claims about Hamas operatives.

Outlook: A deal is seen as likely within the 60-day window, leaving Iran stronger and Israel weakened across Lebanon, Syria, and the wider region.