A fragile new ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is already wobbling, which is bad for the region's hopes of avoiding a wider war but a rare sign of the US pushing back on Israel.

• Israel attacked inside Lebanon, lost four young soldiers, and killed many civilians; a Qatar-brokered ceasefire just took effect but could collapse fast.
• Iran has warned the US that if Israel keeps attacking, it will start hitting back without warning, dropping its old habit of telegraphed strikes.
• Israel says the deal still lets it stay on occupied land and keep flattening homes in southern Lebanon, terms Hezbollah is unlikely to accept.
• JD Vance is openly scolding Netanyahu's hardline ministers, telling them not to insult their only powerful ally and that Israel can't "kill its way out" of every problem.
• Netanyahu is cornered at home: his public has turned on him, his trial is going badly, and he is widely suspected of trying to delay or rig elections due by late October.

Outlook: The ceasefire's survival is shaky, and if Israel keeps striking, Iran's threat of surprise retaliation could reignite the war within weeks.