Bad news for anyone hoping for a peace deal: Iran's hardline military may now fully control the country, making a deal far less likely.

• Iran's moderate president reportedly tried to resign, saying the hardline IRGC has taken over real decision-making, though state media pushed a shaky denial.
• If the IRGC and the supreme leader are truly in charge, a deal looks dead — they care about survival and their revolution, not their own people or the economy.
• Iran's strategy is to stall and wait the conflict out; every day they delay brings them closer to outlasting Trump's patience without giving up uranium, missiles, or proxies.
• Israel opened a second front, hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon and capturing the historic Buford Castle, while the US struck Iranian radar and drone sites after Iran downed a US drone.
• The moderate president now has a target on his back from both his own hardliners and Israel, since killing him would kill any chance of negotiation.

Outlook: Expect more fighting and stalling, with a real chance of another hot war before any deal gets done.