Trump's threat to "blow up" Oman over the Strait of Hormuz comes across as a frustrated leader running out of options on Iran, which is bad news for a calm path to a deal.

• Trump said no one will control the strait and threatened to attack Oman if it tries — talk far harsher than his usual measured tone with friendly countries.
• The US likely can't force the strait open by military means; Iran can choke off shipping there cheaply, and a quick win would not last.
• The real sticking point is uranium enrichment — Israel pushed the US line from "Iran can't have a nuke" to "Iran can't enrich at all," boxing Trump into a corner.
• A failed US rescue mission inside Iran, which lost aircraft, showed how hard "boots on the ground" would be and has quieted the war hawks.
• Pulling US bases out of the region could be an easy win to hand Iran, since those bases proved more of a liability than an asset in the latest fighting.

Outlook: A deal looks possible if the enrichment fight gets resolved, but Trump's lashing out suggests talks are stalled for now.