Russia is preparing a major escalation against Ukraine and possibly NATO targets, and the Iran ceasefire looks shaky — bad for Ukraine, Europe, and oil markets.

• Russia has warned Europe and Kiev that strikes are coming, and Russia usually does what it says it will do.
• Russia held back earlier because it was not ready to fight NATO directly, but now has the weapons and troops in place.
• Western officials and US senators are dismissing the warnings as bluffing, which Johnson calls a serious mistake.
• Russia is expected to retake Kiev and Odessa and install a Russia-friendly government, not a puppet one.
• The Iran ceasefire talks are stuck because Iran wants frozen assets released, oil sanctions lifted, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to the Gaza war — terms Trump is unlikely to force on Israel.
• US and Iranian forces are still trading fire, with Iran shooting down a US drone and stopping US ships near Hormuz.

Outlook: Expect heavier Russian strikes on Ukraine soon and a likely collapse of the Iran ceasefire, which would push oil prices higher.