Oil prices are the best signal for whether an Iran deal is really happening, and right now the market is not convinced.

• Oil has been bouncing between the low 90s and around 106 for the last two months.
• A real Iran deal would push oil below 90, then into the low 80s, and possibly into the 70s.
• Prices need to drop and stay down, not just dip for a day or two.
• Oil briefly hit the low 80s on April 17th but bounced right back, showing the market still doubts a deal.
• War damage to oil supply could push prices back up even if a deal gets done.

Outlook: Watch for oil to settle in the high 70s or low 80s and hold there. That is the signal a deal is real.