Game Theory #28: Predictive History

May 26, 2026

A framework lecture arguing the US attack on Iran reflects three overlapping forces — geopolitics, religious end-times beliefs, and imperial decline — all pointing to a dangerous near-term escalation.

  • The US hit Iran to block a Russia-China-Iran trade bloc that could bypass American sea power and force the world to keep buying US debt.
  • Religious leaders in the US, Israel, Iran, and Russia share end-of-the-world beliefs that frame a Middle East war as a step toward the Messiah, making compromise harder.
  • The American empire is breaking down from within: too much debt, too few young workers, and elites fighting each other, so leaders pick foreign wars as a distraction.
  • A bigger hidden fight is between money as the world's god and a new AI god — an all-knowing system controlled by a small elite that could replace cash with direct control over people.
  • Expect a charismatic figure to claim a messiah-like role in the Middle East soon, given how often this pattern has repeated in the region's history.

Outlook: More war in the Middle East and faster moves toward AI-based control are likely as the old money system loses credibility.

← Latest · Archive