The Iran war is weakening the US position against China rather than hurting Beijing, according to a US intelligence report.

• Gulf countries that relied on US weapons are now buying from China because the US ran out of missile interceptors defending Israel.
• China is selling green energy and jet fuel to countries hit by the energy crunch, building goodwill as a reliable partner.
• China barely needs Gulf oil now and is the second most insulated country from energy shocks, after the US.
• The war drained US weapons stockpiles and let China study how the US fights, while Iran still has most of its missiles intact.
• Chinese ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz under an Iranian deal, bypassing the US blockade entirely.
• Trump met Xi with a group of CEOs (Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Boeing, BlackRock) focused on business deals, not on ending the conflict.

Outlook: As long as the Strait stays blocked, gas and goods prices stay high for Americans while China keeps gaining ground.